Arihant - India’s 40% Indigenous SSBN: Why there is no need for immediate worries

I need to start by pre-empting a reply against questions that would be raised about my 40% claim and here it is:

“We never had a nuclear submarine, and we needed design consultancy from them,” Vice Admiral Kannan, programme director, ATV (Advanced Technology Vessel) says. The Arihant has about 40 per cent indigenous content. The next two submarines of the same class that are planned are likely to have more.

So it has been going on for a couple of days now that since India has got itself an SSBN (Nuclear Powered Submarine capable of launching Ballistic Missiles) what should be Pakistan’s immediate reaction or more importantly what actions should Pakistan take to neutralize this threat.

For this very reason first thing we should note that:

1. July 26th launching of Arihant has only proved that the vessel is Sea Worthy by virtue of not sinking and is only ready for trial phase.
2. The nuclear reactor for the submarine hasn’t even been fired once yet after it’s installation. It will be at least a year before the reactor is fired with full system trails, followed by sea trails and then weapon system trials.

According to Indian Sources the submarine should be battle ready in 3-4 years or a little more.

But if we look at India’s past record in the development of such high-tech equipment, fortunately they have never been punctual. It took a mere 3 decades for them to deliver their first batch of 45 Arjun MBT’s to their eagerly awaiting forces, who now are going to begin it’s comparative trials against Russian T-90 tanks to assess it’s operational deployment role, which raises even more questions regarding Arjun’s capabilities.

So with a project which is many a times more technically demanding, we may not see the very first of these SSBN’s in action until 2nd half of next decade, which roughly gives Pakistan about 7-8 years to prepare.

Why Pakistan needs to prepare?

Whenever the question is raised about India building up it’s forces with Pakistan in mind, the immediate and ever ready reply from Indian side is that they are doing this in response to China. But the very date of its launch (July 26th), which is celebrated in India as their triumph against Pakistan in Kargil says something entirely different.

So for this reason alone we should not keep our eyes closed until the very last moment. Agosta’s are a very good acquisition and the deal with Germany for U Boats is also in its final stages. Keeping in view of above acquisitions we can safely say that we weren't actually sleeping as it seems. These might not be nuclear powered or as capable subs but are amongst the latest and closest to nuclear subs in terms to technology. But if we really need to get ourselves some nuclear subs then the obvious choice for Pakistan is our ever eager and old friend China, which carries a 4-decade experience in Nuclear Submarine technology.

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Stealthy Manned / Unmanned Aircrafts: Double trouble

On one hand we see US developing F-22's with costs as high as USD 350m per piece (unit +development costs off course) and capabilities far beyond any other competing party can come up with in near future. On the other hand they are achieving frightening results in Northern parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan while using UAV’s with per unit cost of around USD 4m with no risk to operators except for a few visits to Eye clinics here and there.

What does this high/low mix (pocket-wise) brings to the table:

1. Air Superiority to reconnaissance ability deep inside enemy territory

2. High speed undetected intrusion to maneuverability for longer periods of time

3. Element of surprise

How is everybody else planning / preparing to keep on par with such a formidable force?

While Russia and India currently are working on PAK FA / FGFA project, China on J-XX, Japan on ATD-X and South Korea on KFX, what European countires have done is to go for the next best and earliest available option F-35. Off course they couldn’t have done this in the first place if they weren’t on the good side of US.

As for UAV’s there are hundreds of projects going all around the world with variable degrees of success but here as well no proven performance records only speculations.

The question here is when will the Russians, Indians and Chinese are going to be able to question US’s authority in Air? Is there really a competition or is this only a one horse race? We can also question when will they be able to do that @ sea as well but here we are only talking about Air superiority.

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